MARKET INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 2025 MARKET INSIGHT REPORT: RESIDENTIAL
Just a reminder of the parameters we use when assembling these stats:
Freehold properties only, meaning both the land and the structure on it is owned outright with no space co-owned or co-managed with owners of adjacent homes. We do review Burlington condo apartments in a separate section. Price ranges – in order to avoid outlier sales that skew the numbers too significantly, we restrict our price ranges, shown in parentheses after the city name.
Below you will find the Market Insight Report for residential properties for Burlington, Oakville, Hamilton, and Greater Hamilton. The market has continued to change this month as you will see in this report.
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Burlington
Burlington's freehold market showed mixed results in October with 115 homes sold compared to 144 last October, a 20% decline in sales volume. The average price of $1,209,061 marks the lowest point of 2025, down $18,900 (-1.5%) from September and $44,000 (-3.5%) year-over-year.
This is notable because October typically represents peak fall market activity, not a seasonal low. While the month-over-month decline from September is modest, the fact that October reached the year's lowest price point suggests continued adjustment as the market finds its footing at more sustainable levels. Days on market improved to 56 days from September's 65, indicating that properties priced at current market levels are moving, even if those levels are lower than earlier in 2025. Sellers achieved 95% of list price.
Inventory tightened to 330 units at month's end from September's 372, an 11% decline that indicates steady absorption despite the lower sales volume compared to last year.
Burlington Condos
The condo market showed surprising strength in October with prices jumping to $656,000, up $79,000 (+13.7%) from September and slightly ahead of last October's $652,000. This represents a notable reversal from the downward pressure seen earlier in the year. Sales came in at 37 units versus 42 last October, a 12% decline.
Days on market remained extended at 106 days, up from September's 79 but significantly longer than last October's 71 days. Sellers achieved 95% of asking price. Inventory dropped slightly to 179 units from September's 181, suggesting the market absorbed available supply despite the slower transaction pace.
Oakville
Oakville delivered strong performance in October with 180 homes sold, up 4% from 173 last October. The average price of $1,525,789 dropped $100,000 (-6.1%) from September's $1,625,725 and sits $92,300 (-5.7%) below last October.
Properties moved efficiently at 32 days on market, down from September's 38 days and only slightly longer than last October's 27 days. Sellers achieved 96% of asking price. Inventory contracted to 836 listings from September's 887, a 6% decline indicating healthy absorption alongside the increased sales activity.
Hamilton
Hamilton showed solid activity with 229 homes sold in October, down 6% from 244 last year but maintaining the elevated activity levels seen through most of 2025. Prices rose to $675,489, up $26,000 (+4.0%) from September but down $23,300 (-3.3%) year-over-year.
The market showed efficiency gains with homes selling in 65 days, up from September's 64 but significantly longer than last October's 46. Sellers received 96% of list price. Inventory declined to 917 units from September's 931, a modest 2% drop as the market continued to absorb available supply.
Greater Hamilton
Greater Hamilton saw some softening with 137 homes sold in October, down 23% from 179 last year. The average price of $976,628 remained essentially flat from September's $978,359, down just $1,700, with year-over-year prices down $47,000 (-4.6%).
Days on market extended to 79 days from September's 65, reflecting the slower sales pace. Sellers achieved 96% of list price.
Looking at the sub-markets, inventory shifts show declining availability: Dundas contracted 18% to 46 listings (from 56 in September), Ancaster fell slightly to 162 (from 166), Flamborough rose 21% to 63 (from 52), Waterdown held at 79 (from 78), Stoney Creek dropped 8% to 268 (from 290), and Glanbrook fell 4% to 108 (from 113). The overall trend of declining inventory suggests steady absorption even with lower transaction volumes.
What Does This All Mean?
October delivered another rate cut, with the Bank of Canada dropping its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on October 29th. That's now two cuts in two months, bringing rates down from the summer high of 2.75%. For variable rate holders, that translates to real monthly savings. But the timing matters: the October cut happened in the final days of the month, so its impact won't fully show in these numbers.
What's striking about October is where prices landed historically. Across most markets, average sale prices returned to levels we haven't seen since October 2020, before the pandemic-fueled surge. Burlington averaged $1,209,061 (compared to $1,185,665 in October 2020), Oakville $1,525,789 (vs $1,453,307), Hamilton $675,489 (vs $585,779), and Greater Hamilton $976,628 (vs $809,141). Only Burlington condos exceeded 2020 levels at $656,000 (vs $518,000). This isn't necessarily alarming. It reflects the market unwinding the rapid, unsustainable appreciation of 2021-2022 and finding a more realistic baseline. The 2021-2022 run-up was the anomaly, not where we are today.
The broader economic context helps explain why. Canada's economy contracted 0.3% in August, the fourth monthly contraction in five months, driven by drops in both manufacturing and services sectors. Trade uncertainty and tariff concerns have been weighing on business confidence and slowing investment throughout 2025, creating the kind of economic headwinds that naturally dampen housing market activity. As one economist noted, buyers are "nervous, worried about their jobs, worried about their income security, and they're pulling back".
Activity patterns throughout October reflect this cautious environment. Comparing year-over-year data reveals the shift: Burlington's daily showings in October 2024 typically ranged from 160-470, while October 2025 saw 180-425, relatively comparable but with notable softness on certain days. Oakville's 2024 showings of 395-800 daily became 400-970 in 2025, showing more volatility. The year-over-year changes varied dramatically by day, some up 20-60%, others flat or down, reflecting an inconsistent buyer engagement pattern.
New listing activity shows even more dramatic shifts. Burlington posted just 3-49 new listings daily in October 2025 versus 7-61 in October 2024. Oakville saw 7-76 listings daily compared to 23-87 the year before. The lower listing volumes, combined with reduced sales activity, explain why inventory still managed to decline across most markets. Sellers who might have listed aren't entering the market, likely waiting for more economic certainty before making their move.
The GTA as a whole saw sales up 8.5% year-over-year in October, with prices down 4.7%. Our local markets mirror this pattern: modest sales activity with continued price moderation. It's a market finding balance after years of extremes.
Note: Burlington and Hamilton figures represent cumulative days on market, which includes time from previous listings if a property was cancelled and relisted. Oakville figures show only current listing period, as cumulative data is not available from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
What This Means for You
For Buyers: Two rate cuts in two months is real progress, but don't expect them to suddenly make housing dramatically more affordable. Variable rate holders are seeing meaningful monthly savings, but if you're taking out a new mortgage, you're still borrowing at rates far above pandemic lows. The opportunity remains in selection and negotiating position. With inventory levels declining and days on market still extended (56-79 days in most markets), you have time to be thorough and selective. Focus on properties that have been listed for 6+ weeks.
For Sellers: October's declining inventory levels are encouraging, but they're driven more by fewer new listings than by a surge in sales. This creates a somewhat better competitive environment than we saw in summer, but realistic pricing remains critical. Properties priced at current market value and presented well are still moving, but anything that misses the mark will sit. The key insight: we're now seeing clear differences between markets. Oakville's 180 sales (up 4% year-over-year) and improved days on market show stronger buyer engagement than Greater Hamilton's 137 sales (down 23%). Know your specific market.
The rate cuts are a positive signal, but they're not transforming market fundamentals overnight. What we're seeing is a steady, measured market where both buyers and sellers need to be realistic about their expectations and timelines. The days of bidding wars and instant sales are behind us, but so are the days of inventory scarcity and no negotiating room for buyers.
Looking ahead: The federal government released its budget on November 4th, including $25 billion in housing initiatives over five years, with Build Canada Homes receiving $13 billion to accelerate construction of tens of thousands of units through factory-built housing. While these measures won't produce immediate market impacts, they signal government commitment to addressing supply constraints in the longer term. More immediately, another Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for December 10th, where attention will turn to whether the cutting cycle continues. November and December typically see seasonal slowdowns as we head into the holidays. The real test will be whether the combination of rate cuts and increased housing investment translates into sustained buyer confidence heading into 2026, or whether economic uncertainty continues to keep people cautious.
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